How Pork Producers Can Navigate Rising Market Volatility

Volatility has always been part of the pork industry, but in recent years the unpredictability has reached new levels. From erratic hog prices and unstable grain markets to rising input costs and interest rate hikes, pork producers today face a complex operating environment.

Now more than ever, proactive planning and risk mitigation strategies are critical to managing profitability and ensuring long-term sustainability.

Hog Market Swings Are Hard to Predict

One of the most immediate areas of concern is the hog market itself. Prices can fluctuate dramatically due to:

• Disease outbreaks 
• Shifting export demand
• Global trade policy
• Changes in domestic consumption

These unpredictable forces make market timing crucial and can impact producer margins from quarter to quarter.

Grain Market Instability Adds to Risk

Similarly, corn and soybean meal, essential components of swine feed, have also seen dramatic price volatility. Key factors include:

• Global weather patterns
• Biofuel policy changes
• Geopolitical unrest
• Fluctuating international demand

With feed representing a large portion of production costs, sudden increases in grain prices can significantly erode margins for pork producers.

Rising Input Costs and Interest Rates

Beyond feed, pork producers face rising costs for:

• Labor
• Fuel 
• Equipment and machinery
• Insurance costs

At the same time, the interest rate environment has shifted dramatically in response to inflationary pressures and broader economic trends. 

Higher interest rates can affect not only the cost of borrowing for capital improvements or operational expenses but also influence long-term expansion and investment decisions.

Why a Risk Management Team Is Essential

To stay profitable in a volatile market, pork producers must rely on strong risk management strategies and the right team to execute them.

Key tools for managing risk include:

• Futures and options hedging - Lock in prices and protect against adverse market swings.
• Livestock insurance programs - Mitigate losses due to market downturns or production challenges.
• Feed cost planning - Secure grain prices in advance to maintain predictable expenses.
• Capital strategy evaluation - Plan for sustainable growth without overextending financially.

These tools are powerful on their own, but even more effective when guided by knowledgeable experts.

Advisors Offer Strategy and Stability

In unpredictable times, emotions can drive hasty decisions. That’s where experienced advisors come in. They provide:

• Objective, data-driven insight
• Historical context to guide tough choices
• Confidence in timing major investments
• Herd health and nutrition management advice

The right advisor doesn’t just offer financial tools, they offer perspective. They help producers evaluate their options holistically and respond to uncertainty with clarity and confidence.

Preparing to Thrive in an Uncertain Future

Volatility in the pork industry isn’t going away. But producers who accept this reality and embrace strategic, data-informed decision-making will be in a stronger position to thrive.

In uncertain times, leaning on experienced advisors and a well-prepared risk team is not just smart business—it’s essential. 

Ready to Build a More Resilient Operation?
Connect with Compeer Financial’s team of swine industry experts, like swine lending specialist Dustin Compart, to explore personalized risk management strategies.