Tracking Global and Domestic Trends While Monitoring Rates
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held at the end of March revealed rate makers remain cautious due to stubborn inflation, which has yet to reach the desired 2% range. Recent events including the higher-than-expected March Consumer Price Index report and an attack by Iran on Israel caused US Treasuries to rise. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury, which began the year below 4%, has now reached the mid-4 range, contrary to expectations at the start of 2023.
Another notable development is the inversion of two- and 10-year bond yields, historically associated with impending US recessions. As of April 10, 2024, this inversion persisted for 446 consecutive trading sessions, matching the longest streak since May 1980. Despite various economic indicators, inflation appears to be the primary factor influencing rate trends throughout 2024. The Federal Reserve projects three rate cuts through 2024, with fewer cuts anticipated in 2025 compared to pre-March 2024 FOMC projections.
Trends in Wealth
Shifting focus from global economics to individual wealth, Forbes released its billionaire index earlier this year, revealing significant changes. China experienced a decline of 90 billionaires from 2022 to 2023, although the collective net worth remains at $1.3 trillion. Meanwhile, the U.S. hosts 813 billionaires, collectively worth $5.7 trillion, indicating an increase in both the number of individuals and wealth since the previous year.
India, projected to become the world’s largest economy, saw a record 200 billionaires in 2023, reflecting a 40% increase from 2022. This growth underscores the shifting dynamics of global economic power, with India emerging as a significant player alongside China.
Domestic Spending
The US appears inclined toward deficit spending. Most people balance some sort of budget, whether at work or at home. It’s puzzling that while state and local governments require a balanced budget, the federal government can operate under a deficit. This concept isn’t new. Following the Revolutionary War, the US owed more than $75 million. However, the first fiscal deficit in the federal ledger didn’t occur until the end of that decade. Deficits persisted, but it wasn’t until President Andrew Jackson’s term that deficits were viewed as immoral and weakening the nation. In less than six years, President Jackson paid off the entire US debt in 1835.
Throughout history, from the War of 1812 to the recent pandemic spending, deficit spending has occurred for various reasons and events. We may relate to these challenging times, but like any business, corrective action is necessary to avoid failure due to insufficient cash flow. The federal government, through the Federal Reserve, has additional controls to print money, but this raises concerns about future implications.
While not a novel concept, the rate and speed of deficits continue to warrant monitoring. Moreover, in a higher rate environment, carrying additional debt entails significant costs. There are numerous statistics and projections about the implications of this trend for our country’s future. Without a crystal ball, predicting its impact is challenging.
Based on earlier Congressional Budget Office data, projected federal expenses are expected to increase over the next decade, with interest becoming the second largest expense this year. This cost is forecasted to rise from $870 billion this year to $1.628 trillion in 2034, representing 2.4% of GDP today and 3.9% by 2034. The key concern is the impact of interest expenses, raising the question of how much debt is tolerable. It’s important to monitor these developments and their effects on those responsible; it’s easy to spend someone else’s money.
Ongoing Events Impacting the Market
Moving on to three ongoing situations – one immediate and the other two evolving. Firstly, the fate of the US commercial real estate market, with nearly $1.5 trillion of debt due for repayment by the end of 2025. While the housing market remains strong, other sectors show weakness, exacerbated by higher interest rates on this debt.
Secondly, the growing influence of India, currently the world’s fifth-largest economy, expected to rise to the third place soon. With a population of 1.4 billion people and a fast-growing economy, India’s internal resources are being leveraged for economic growth.
Lastly, the conflict between Israel and Gaza appears to be at a standstill, except for attacks by Iran, which have driven market rates higher. While discussions of a ceasefire are ongoing, uncertainty remains regarding other parties’ involvement and influences shaping the narrative. While attention has shifted from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, both remain significant with geopolitical implications.
In this world-wide marketplace, both domestic and international activities will impact interest rates today and tomorrow. Keeping an eye on these events and how the Fed reacts will be telling for the future of interest rates.
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